![]() The second technical issue is certification. I call it three million platforms with a hundred users each ( link). Microsoft alone has several - two versions of Windows Mobile, Tablet PC, and so on. Symbian was there too, but it was in Europe and few people here were paying attention. Back in the late 1990s there were two platforms we had to worry about, Pocket PC and Palm OS. One is the proliferation of operating systems. Second, marketing and sales have also become harder.įrom the technical perspective, there are a couple of big issues. First, the business has become tougher technologically. Two problems have caused a decline the mobile apps business over the last few years. I can't reproduce it word for word (I couldn't write that fast), but I've summarized it with his permission here: But we've kept in touch, and so he called recently to tell me that he had given up on his mobile applications business.Įlia gave me a long explanation of why. ![]() I eventually moved on from Palm, and Elia branched out into other platforms such as Blackberry. He was one of the leaders of the Palm software market, with a ten year history in mobile applications. Elia is CEO of Infinity Softworks, which makes vertical market software for mobile devices (tasks like real estate valuation and financial services). That came home to me very forcefully a few days ago, when I got a call from Elia Freedman. In fact, as the market shifted from handhelds to smartphones, the situation for mobile app developers has become substantially worse. The problem wasn't just limited to Palm the level of developer activity and creativity that we saw in the glory days of Palm OS hasn't reappeared on any mobile platform since. In the years that followed, the energy and momentum gradually drained out of the mobile applications market. It felt like we were at the leading edge of a revolution, but in hindsight it was more like the high water mark of a flash flood. The PalmSource conference was swamped, with people spilling out into the halls, and David Pogue took center stage at the close of the conference to tell us how brilliant we all were. In a 22-month period, the number of registered Palm developers increased from 3,000 to over 130,000. The market was literally exploding, with the installed base of devices doubling every year, and an incredible range of creative and useful software popping up all over. That's what we all believe, but I'm starting to think we got it wrong.īack in 1999 when I joined Palm, it seemed we had the whole mobile ecosystem nailed. ![]() We all assumed this also meant mobile devices needed a whole mobile-specific software stack, including an operating system and APIs designed specifically for mobility, and native third-party applications created from the ground up for mobile usage. Psion came up with similar ideas, and you can hear echoes of them from every other successful mobile computing firm: Mobile computers are used differently from PCs, and therefore must be designed differently. It was the central insight of Palm Computing's "Zen of Palm" philosophy. Mobile computing is different from PC computing.įor the last decade, that has been the fundamental rule of the mobile data industry. The decline of the mobile software industry This has huge implications for mobile operators, handset companies, developers, and users. I think this will drive a rapid rise in mobile web development, largely replacing the mobile app business. The problems are so bad that the mobile web, despite its many technical drawbacks, is now a better way to deliver new functionality to mobiles. Summary: The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices. ![]()
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